Effect of epidemic management and control plan on COVID-19 mortality in Iran: an interrupted time series analysis


COVID-19; Control Measures; Iran; Mortality


Background: Several measures have been taken around the world to decrease  COVID-19 mortality. However, the effectiveness of preventive measures on the mortality related to COVID-19 has not been fully assessed. Thus, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the success of COVID-19 epidemic management and control plan on the mortality related to COVID-19 in Iran since February 19, 2020 to February 5, 2021.

Methods: In the current quasi experimental study an interrupted time series analysis (ITS) of daily collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 occurred in Iran and in the world,  were performed using Newey ordinary least squares (OLS) regression-based methods.

Results: In Iran the trend of new deaths increase significantly every day until 24 November 2020 according to pre intervention slope of 1.14 (95% CI = [0.96 – 1.32]; P < 0.001). The occurrence of new deaths had a decreasing trend after 24 November 2020 with a coefficient of

 -5.12 (95% CI = [-6.04 – -4.20; P <0.001]). But in the global level daily new deaths was increasing before (18.66 (95% CI = [14.41 – 2292]; P < 0.001)) and after the 24 November 2020  (57.14 (95% CI = [20.80–  93.49]; P: 0.002)).

Conclusion: Iranian Covid-19 epidemic management and control plan was able to reduce the mortality related to COVID-19, effectively. Therefore, it is essential to continue these measures, in order to  prevent the increase in the number of deaths.



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