Keywords
Abstract
Introduction: Colorectal cancer is the third most common malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. This disease is the fourth most common malignancy in Iran. Since knowing the trend of this cancer is necessary for planning; this study aimed comparing the trend of colorectal cancer before and after implementing the Population-Based National Cancer Registry.
Methods In this time series analysis using secondary data, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to predict the future trend. An Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression model was also used to compare the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer before and after the setting up the Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry (INPCR).
Results: Among Iranian men, an increasing trend in the incidence (from 16.8 in 2019 to 19.5 per 100,000 in 2027) and deaths of colorectal cancer for the coming years was predicted (from 10.2 in 2019 to 11.2 per 100,000 in 2027). A similar pattern also was observed for the incidence of this cancer among females (from 11 in 2019 to 12.3 per 100,000 in 2027), but a reverse pattern was predicted for the trend of deaths among the women (from 2.06 in 2019 to 1.93 per 100,000 in 2027). During the years after the implementation of the INPCR, the trend of cases (β: 0.33 per 100,000, p < 0.001) as well as deaths due to colorectal cancer was significantly increasing (β: 0.08 per 100,000, p < 0.001) among the Iranian population.
Conclusion: Implementation of population based cancer registration programs, may improved the cancer registration system and the part of the increase in the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer could be due to the improvement of the registration and reporting system of new cancer cases.
References
Bray F, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Siegel RL, Torre LA, Jemal A: Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA: a cancer journal for clinicians 2018, 68(6):394-424.
Organization IAfRoCWH: Global Cancer Observatory. In.; 2023.
Bouvard V, Loomis D, Guyton K: Carcinogenicity of consumption of red and processed meat IARC Working Group. Lyon; publishing house IARC. IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans Cancer in Humans 2015, 114.
Cancer IAfRo, Organization WH: A review of human carcinogens. 2012.
Lauby-Secretan B, Scoccianti C, Loomis D, Grosse Y, Bianchini F, Straif K: Body fatness and cancer—viewpoint of the IARC Working Group. New England journal of medicine 2016, 375(8):794-798.
Clinton SK, Giovannucci EL, Hursting SD: The world cancer research fund/American institute for cancer research third expert report on diet, nutrition, physical activity, and cancer: impact and future directions. The Journal of nutrition 2020, 150(4):663-671.
KOLAH DS, Sajadi A, Radmard AR, KHADEMI H: Five common cancers in Iran. 2010.
Ghassemi H, Harrison G, Mohammad K: An accelerated nutrition transition in Iran. Public health nutrition 2002, 5(1a):149-155.
Darabi M, Asadi Lari M, Motevalian SA, Motlagh A, Arsang-Jang S, Karimi Jaberi M: Trends in gastrointestinal cancer incidence in Iran, 2001-2010: a joinpoint analysis. Epidemiology and health 2016, 38:e2016056.
Roshandel G, Ghanbari-Motlagh A, Partovipour E, Salavati F, Hasanpour-Heidari S, Mohammadi G, Khoshaabi M, Sadjadi A, Davanlou M, Tavangar S-M: Cancer incidence in Iran in 2014: results of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry. Cancer epidemiology 2019, 61:50-58.
Somi MH, Farhang S, Mirinezhad SK, Naghashi S, Seif-Farshad M, Golzari M: Cancer in East Azerbaijan, Iran: results of a population-based cancer registry. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 2008, 9(2):327-330.
Keyghobadi N, Rafiemanesh H, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Enayatrad M, Salehiniya H: Epidemiology and trend of cancers in the province of Kerman: southeast of Iran. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention 2015, 16(4):1409-1413.
Masoompour SM, Yarmohammadi H, Rezaianzadeh A, Lankarani KB: Cancer incidence in southern Iran, 1998–2002: Results of population-based cancer registry. Cancer epidemiology 2011, 35(5):e42-e47.
Muir C, Percy C: Classification and coding for neoplasms. Cancer registration: principles and methods Lyon: IARC 1991, 81.
Bray F, Colombet M, Mery L, Piñeros M, Znaor A, Zanetti R, Ferlay J: Cancer incidence in five continents Vol. XI. 2021.
Malvezzi M, Carioli G, Bertuccio P, Negri E, La Vecchia C: Relation between mortality trends of cardiovascular diseases and selected cancers in the European Union, in 1970–2017. Focus on cohort and period effects. European Journal of Cancer 2018, 103:341-355.
Lin Y, Chen M, Chen G, Wu X, Lin T: Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting injury mortality in Xiamen, China. BMJ open 2015, 5(12):e008491.
Chen S, Wang X, Zhao J, Zhang Y, Kan X: Application of the ARIMA Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Anhui During COVID-19 Pandemic from 2021 to 2022. Infection and Drug Resistance 2022:3503-3512.
Zhai M, Li W, Tie P, Wang X, Xie T, Ren H, Zhang Z, Song W, Quan D, Li M: Research on the predictive effect of a combined model of ARIMA and neural networks on human brucellosis in Shanxi Province, China: a time series predictive analysis. BMC Infectious Diseases 2021, 21(1):1-12.
Alimohamadi Y, Holakouie-Naieni K, Sepandi M, Taghdir M: Effect of Social Distancing on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Iran Since February 20 to May 13, 2020: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Risk management and healthcare policy 2020, 13:1695-1700.
Yazdizadeh B, Jarrahi AM, Mortazavi H, Mohagheghi MA, Tahmasebi S, Nahvijo A: Time trends in the occurrence of major GI cancers in Iran. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 2005, 6(2):130-134.
Mousavi SM, Gouya MM, Ramazani R, Davanlou M, Hajsadeghi N, Seddighi Z: Cancer incidence and mortality in Iran. Annals of oncology 2009, 20(3):556-563.
Mistry M, Parkin D, Ahmad AS, Sasieni P: Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030. British journal of cancer 2011, 105(11):1795-1803.
Zavoral M, Suchanek S, Majek O, Fric P, Minarikova P, Minarik M, Seifert B, Dusek L: Colorectal cancer screening: 20 years of development and recent progress. World journal of gastroenterology: WJG 2014, 20(14):3825.
Chatenoud L, Bertuccio P, Bosetti C, Levi F, Curado MP, Malvezzi M, Negri E, La Vecchia C: Trends in cancer mortality in Brazil, 1980–2004. European Journal of Cancer Prevention 2010, 19(2):79-86.
Bosetti C, Malvezzi M, Chatenoud L, Negri E, Levi F, La Vecchia C: Trends in cancer mortality in the Americas, 1970–2000. Annals of Oncology 2005, 16(3):489-511.
International C: Scaling up cancer diagnosis and treatment in developing countries: what can we learn from the HIV/AIDS epidemic? In., vol. 21; 2010: 680-682.
Moradi A, Khayamzadeh M, Guya M, Mirzaei HR, Salmanian R, Rakhsha A, Akbari ME: Survival of colorectal cancer in Iran. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 2009, 10(4):583-586.
Hoseini S, Moaddabshoar L, Hemati S, Mohammadianpanah M: An overview of clinical and pathological characteristics and survival rate of colorectal cancer in Iran. Annals of Colorectal Research (Iranian Journal of Colorectal Research) 2014, 2(1):1-8.
Heidari M, Najafi F: Trends of skin cancer incidence in 6 geographical regions of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2000-2005. EMHJ-Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 19 (1), 59-65, 2013 2013.
Haidari M, Nikbakht MR, Pasdar Y, Najafi F: Trend analysis of gastric cancer incidence in Iran and its six geographical areas during 2000-2005. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention 2012, 13(7):3335-3341.
Rahimi F, Heidari M: Time trend analysis of stomach cancer incidence in the west of Iran. Health and Development Journal 2012, 1(2).
Brenner DR, Ruan Y, Shaw E, De P, Heitman SJ, Hilsden RJ: Increasing colorectal cancer incidence trends among younger adults in Canada. Preventive medicine 2017, 105:345-349.
Su S-Y, Huang J-Y: Effect of nationwide screening program on colorectal cancer mortality in Taiwan: a controlled interrupted time series analysis. International Journal of Colorectal Disease 2020, 35(2):239-247.
de Kok IM, Wong CS, Chia KS, Sim X, Tan CS, Kiemeney LA, Verkooijen HM: Gender differences in the trend of colorectal cancer incidence in Singapore, 1968–2002. International journal of colorectal disease 2008, 23(5):461-467.
Key T: Fruit and vegetables and cancer risk. British journal of cancer 2011, 104(1):6-11.
Aune D, Lau R, Chan DS, Vieira R, Greenwood DC, Kampman E, Norat T: Nonlinear reduction in risk for colorectal cancer by fruit and vegetable intake based on meta-analysis of prospective studies. Gastroenterology 2011, 141(1):106-118.
Azizi F, Allahverdian S, Mirmiran P, Rahmani M, Mohammadi F: Dietary factors and body mass index in a group of Iranian adolescents: Tehran lipid and glucose study-2. International journal for vitamin and nutrition research 2001, 71(2):123-127.
Donohoe C, Pidgeon G, Lysaght J, Reynolds J: Obesity and gastrointestinal cancer. Journal of British Surgery 2010, 97(5):628-642.
Chan AT, Giovannucci EL: Primary prevention of colorectal cancer. Gastroenterology 2010, 138(6):2029-2043. e2010.
Alikhani S, Delavari A, Alaedini F, Kelishadi R, Rohbani S, Safaei A: A province-based surveillance system for the risk factors of non-communicable diseases: A prototype for integration of risk factor surveillance into primary healthcare systems of developing countries. Public health 2009, 123(5):358-364.
Richards M: The size of the prize for earlier diagnosis of cancer in England. British journal of cancer 2009, 101(2):S125-S129.
Guren MG, Kørner H, Pfeffer F, Myklebust TÅ, Eriksen MT, Edna T-H, Larsen SG, Knudsen KO, Nesbakken A, Wasmuth HH: Nationwide improvement of rectal cancer treatment outcomes in Norway, 1993–2010. Acta oncologica 2015, 54(10):1714-1722.
Barton MB, Frommer M, Shafiq J: Role of radiotherapy in cancer control in low-income and middle-income countries. The lancet oncology 2006, 7(7):584-595.