Keywords
Incidence rate, Brucellosis, Geographic Information System, Iran
Abstract
Background: Brucellosis is one of the most challenging health issues in many developing countries including Iran. The purpose of this study is to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of brucellosis using Geographic Information System (GIS) and to predict its incidence in Iran in 2021.
Method: This is a descriptive-analytical cross-sectional study, which contains spatial and climatic information along with the prevalence rate of brucellosis in Iran. Disease information was obtained from the National Center for Infectious Diseases Management during 2011-2015. Then, Arc GIS version 9.3 was used to plot the geographical maps for the incidence and frequency of the disease. Using the Raster calculator tool, the disease prediction map for the future was plotted. For proper spatial distribution of hot and cold spots, Getis-Ord-Gi statistic was employed.
Results: The highest incidence of brucellosis during 2009-2015 was observed in the western provinces of Iran (North Khorasan, South Khorasan and Razavi Khorasan provinces). The incidence of brucellosis in Iran decreased from 2009 to 2011 but it exhibited an increasing trend from 2011 to 2014. The provinces of Kurdistan, Lorestan, Ilam, Zanjan and Kermanshah may be among the hot spots in terms of brucellosis incidence in 2021.
Conclusion: We predicted significant variations in brucellosis risk distribution in Iran in the coming years. In the western and northwestern provinces, which are among the high risk areas for the incidence of this disease in the future, this disease can pose a serious health threat to the residents of these areas.
References
1. Pappas G, Papadimitriou P, Akritidis N, Christou L, Tsianos EV. The new global map of human brucellosis. The Lancet infectious diseases. 2006;6(2):91-9.
2. Al-Majali AM, Al-Qudah KM, Al-Tarazi YH, Al-Rawashdeh OF. Risk factors associated with camel brucellosis in Jordan. Tropical Animal Health and Production. 2008;40(3):193-200.
3. Durusoy R, Karababa AO. Completeness of hepatitis, brucellosis, syphilis, measles and HIV/AIDS surveillance in Izmir, Turkey. BMC Public Health. 2010;10(1):71.
4. Saegerman C, Porter S, Humblet M-F, editors. Risk assessment of the re-emergence of bovine brucellosis/tuberculosis. A Paper Presented to International Colloquium on Emerging Animal Diseases, From Science to Policy; 2008.
5. Moreno E. Brucellosis in central America. Veterinary microbiology. 2002;90(1-4):31-8.
6. Nicoletti P. Brucellosis: past, present and future. Prilozi. 2010;31(1):21-32.
7. Dean AS, Crump L, Greter H, Schelling E, Zinsstag J. Global burden of human brucellosis: a systematic review of disease frequency. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2012;6(10).
8. Mantur B, Amarnath S, Shinde R. Review of clinical and laboratory features of human brucellosis. Indian journal of medical microbiology. 2007;25(3):188.
9. Hotez PJ, Savioli L, Fenwick A. Neglected tropical diseases of the Middle East and North Africa: review of their prevalence, distribution, and opportunities for control. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2012;6(2).
10. Tapak L, Shirmohammadi-Khorram N, Hamidi O, Maryanaji Z. Predicting the frequency of human brucellosis using climatic indices by three data mining techniques of radial basis function, multilayer perceptron and nearest Neighbor: A comparative study. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 2018;14(2):153-65.
11. Eini P, Keramat F, Hasanzadehhoseinabadi M. Epidemiologic, clinical and laboratory findings of patients with brucellosis in Hamadan, west of Iran. Journal of research in health sciences. 2012;12(2):105-8.
12. Mostafavi E, Asmand M. Trend of brucellosis in Iran from 1991 to 2008. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 2012;8(1).
13. Mirzazadeh A, Hajarizadeh B, Mesgarpour B, Golozar A, Holakouie Naieni K. Mapping of cutaneous leishmaniosis in Kerman city from 2002 to 2006 and its environmental risk factors by geographical information system. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 2009;4(3):17-25.
14. Pakzad R, Pakzad I, Safiri S, Shirzadi MR, Mohammadpour M, Behroozi A, et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of brucellosis incidence in Iran from 2011 to 2014 using GIS. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2018;67:129-36.
15. Mostafavi E, Haghdoost A, Khakifirouz S, Chinikar S. Spatial analysis of Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever in Iran. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene. 2013;89(6):1135-41.
16. Gatrell A, Senior M. Health and health care applications. Geographical information systems: Principles techniques management and applications. 1999;2.
17. Boulos MK, Roudsari AV, Carson ER. Health geomatics: an enabling suite of technologies in health and healthcare. Journal of Biomedical Informatics. 2001;34(3):195-219.
18. Sipe NG, Dale P. Challenges in using geographic information systems (GIS) to understand and control malaria in Indonesia. Malaria journal. 2003;2(1):36.
19. Setianto A, Setianto A, Triandini T, Triandini T. Comparison of kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation methods in lineament extraction and analysis. Journal of Southeast Asian Applied Geology. 2013;5(1):21-9.
20. Getis A, Ord JK. The analysis of Spatial Association by use of Distance Statistics. Geographic Analysis,Vol. 24, No. 3, 1992, pp. 189-206.
21. MORADI G, Kanani S, Majidpour M, Ghaderi A. Epidemiological status survey of 3880 case of brucellosis in Kurdistan. 2006.
22. Blasco JM, Molina-Flores B. Control and eradication of Brucella melitensis infection in sheep and goats. Veterinary Clinics: Food Animal Practice. 2011;27(1):95-104.
23. Shoraka HR, Hoseini S, Hejazi A. Epidemiological study of brucellosis in Maneh & Semelghan town, North Khorasan province, in 2008-2009. Journal of North Khorasan University of Medical Sciences. 2010;2(2):65-72.
24. Hashemi SH, Keramat F, Ranjbar M, Mamani M, Farzam A, Jamal-Omidi S. Osteoarticular complications of brucellosis in Hamedan, an endemic area in the west of Iran. International journal of infectious diseases. 2007;11(6):496-500.
25. . HW. Handistatus II: zoonoses (human cases): global cases of brucellosis in 2004. http://wwwoieint/hs2/gi_zoon_maldasp?c_cont=6&c_mald=172&annee=2004 (accessed July 2015)
26. Peng D, Zhao D, Liu J, Wang X, Yang K, Xicheng H, et al. Multipathogen infections in hospitalized children with acute respiratory infections. Virology journal. 2009;6(1):155.
27. Biesbroek G, Tsivtsivadze E, Sanders EA, Montijn R, Veenhoven RH, Keijser BJ, et al. Early respiratory microbiota composition determines bacterial succession patterns and respiratory health in children. American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine. 2014;190(11):1283-92.
28. Antoni S, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Znaor A, Jemal A, Bray F. Bladder cancer incidence and mortality: a global overview and recent trends. European urology. 2017;71(1):96-108.
29. Adeloye D, Harhay MO, Ayepola OO, Dos Santos JP, David RA, Ogunlana OO, et al. Estimate of the incidence of bladder cancer in Africa: A systematic review and Bayesian meta‐analysis. International Journal of Urology. 2019;26(1):102-12.
30. Hashtarkhani S, Akbari M, Jarahi L, Etminani K. Epidemiological characteristics and trend of incidence of human brucellosis in Razavi Khorasan province. Medical journal of Mashhad university of medical sciences. 2015;58(9):531-8.
31. Zhang J, Yin F, Zhang T, Yang C, Zhang X, Feng Z, et al. Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004–2010. BMJ open. 2014;4(4):e004470.
32. Yumuk Z, O’Callaghan D. Brucellosis in Turkey—an overview. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2012;16(4):e228-e35.
33. Al Dahouk S, Neubauer H, Hensel A, Schöneberg I, Nöckler K, Alpers K, et al. Changing epidemiology of human brucellosis, Germany, 1962–2005. Emerging infectious diseases. 2007;13(12):1895.
34. Seleem MN, Boyle SM, Sriranganathan N. Brucellosis: a re-emerging zoonosis. Veterinary microbiology. 2010;140(3-4):392-8.
35. Boschiroli M-L, Foulongne V, O'Callaghan D. Brucellosis: a worldwide zoonosis. Current opinion in microbiology. 2001;4(1):58-64.
36. Jelastopulu E, Bikas C, Petropoulos C, Leotsinidis M. Incidence of human brucellosis in a rural area in Western Greece after the implementation of a vaccination programme against animal brucellosis. BMC Public health. 2008;8(1):241.
37. Skalsky K, Yahav D, Bishara J, Pitlik S, Leibovici L, Paul M. Treatment of human brucellosis: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Bmj. 2008;336(7646):701-4.
38. Mirnejad R, Jazi FM, Mostafaei S, Sedighi M. Epidemiology of brucellosis in Iran: A comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis study. Microbial pathogenesis. 2017;109:239-47.
39. Khazaei S, Shojaeian M, Zamani R, Mansori K, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Rezaeian-Langroodi R, et al. Epidemiology and risk factors of childhood brucellosis in West of Iran. International journal of pediatrics. 2016;4(7):2099-104.
40. Zeinali M SM JS. National guideline for Brucellosis control. Tehran: J Fac Vet Med Univ Tehran. 2009;6(2):7-10[In Persian.].
41. Kassiri H, Amani H, Lotfi M. Epidemiological, laboratory, diagnostic and public health aspects of human brucellosis in western Iran. Asian Pacific journal of tropical biomedicine. 2013;3(8):589-94.
2. Al-Majali AM, Al-Qudah KM, Al-Tarazi YH, Al-Rawashdeh OF. Risk factors associated with camel brucellosis in Jordan. Tropical Animal Health and Production. 2008;40(3):193-200.
3. Durusoy R, Karababa AO. Completeness of hepatitis, brucellosis, syphilis, measles and HIV/AIDS surveillance in Izmir, Turkey. BMC Public Health. 2010;10(1):71.
4. Saegerman C, Porter S, Humblet M-F, editors. Risk assessment of the re-emergence of bovine brucellosis/tuberculosis. A Paper Presented to International Colloquium on Emerging Animal Diseases, From Science to Policy; 2008.
5. Moreno E. Brucellosis in central America. Veterinary microbiology. 2002;90(1-4):31-8.
6. Nicoletti P. Brucellosis: past, present and future. Prilozi. 2010;31(1):21-32.
7. Dean AS, Crump L, Greter H, Schelling E, Zinsstag J. Global burden of human brucellosis: a systematic review of disease frequency. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2012;6(10).
8. Mantur B, Amarnath S, Shinde R. Review of clinical and laboratory features of human brucellosis. Indian journal of medical microbiology. 2007;25(3):188.
9. Hotez PJ, Savioli L, Fenwick A. Neglected tropical diseases of the Middle East and North Africa: review of their prevalence, distribution, and opportunities for control. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2012;6(2).
10. Tapak L, Shirmohammadi-Khorram N, Hamidi O, Maryanaji Z. Predicting the frequency of human brucellosis using climatic indices by three data mining techniques of radial basis function, multilayer perceptron and nearest Neighbor: A comparative study. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 2018;14(2):153-65.
11. Eini P, Keramat F, Hasanzadehhoseinabadi M. Epidemiologic, clinical and laboratory findings of patients with brucellosis in Hamadan, west of Iran. Journal of research in health sciences. 2012;12(2):105-8.
12. Mostafavi E, Asmand M. Trend of brucellosis in Iran from 1991 to 2008. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 2012;8(1).
13. Mirzazadeh A, Hajarizadeh B, Mesgarpour B, Golozar A, Holakouie Naieni K. Mapping of cutaneous leishmaniosis in Kerman city from 2002 to 2006 and its environmental risk factors by geographical information system. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology. 2009;4(3):17-25.
14. Pakzad R, Pakzad I, Safiri S, Shirzadi MR, Mohammadpour M, Behroozi A, et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of brucellosis incidence in Iran from 2011 to 2014 using GIS. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2018;67:129-36.
15. Mostafavi E, Haghdoost A, Khakifirouz S, Chinikar S. Spatial analysis of Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever in Iran. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene. 2013;89(6):1135-41.
16. Gatrell A, Senior M. Health and health care applications. Geographical information systems: Principles techniques management and applications. 1999;2.
17. Boulos MK, Roudsari AV, Carson ER. Health geomatics: an enabling suite of technologies in health and healthcare. Journal of Biomedical Informatics. 2001;34(3):195-219.
18. Sipe NG, Dale P. Challenges in using geographic information systems (GIS) to understand and control malaria in Indonesia. Malaria journal. 2003;2(1):36.
19. Setianto A, Setianto A, Triandini T, Triandini T. Comparison of kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation methods in lineament extraction and analysis. Journal of Southeast Asian Applied Geology. 2013;5(1):21-9.
20. Getis A, Ord JK. The analysis of Spatial Association by use of Distance Statistics. Geographic Analysis,Vol. 24, No. 3, 1992, pp. 189-206.
21. MORADI G, Kanani S, Majidpour M, Ghaderi A. Epidemiological status survey of 3880 case of brucellosis in Kurdistan. 2006.
22. Blasco JM, Molina-Flores B. Control and eradication of Brucella melitensis infection in sheep and goats. Veterinary Clinics: Food Animal Practice. 2011;27(1):95-104.
23. Shoraka HR, Hoseini S, Hejazi A. Epidemiological study of brucellosis in Maneh & Semelghan town, North Khorasan province, in 2008-2009. Journal of North Khorasan University of Medical Sciences. 2010;2(2):65-72.
24. Hashemi SH, Keramat F, Ranjbar M, Mamani M, Farzam A, Jamal-Omidi S. Osteoarticular complications of brucellosis in Hamedan, an endemic area in the west of Iran. International journal of infectious diseases. 2007;11(6):496-500.
25. . HW. Handistatus II: zoonoses (human cases): global cases of brucellosis in 2004. http://wwwoieint/hs2/gi_zoon_maldasp?c_cont=6&c_mald=172&annee=2004 (accessed July 2015)
26. Peng D, Zhao D, Liu J, Wang X, Yang K, Xicheng H, et al. Multipathogen infections in hospitalized children with acute respiratory infections. Virology journal. 2009;6(1):155.
27. Biesbroek G, Tsivtsivadze E, Sanders EA, Montijn R, Veenhoven RH, Keijser BJ, et al. Early respiratory microbiota composition determines bacterial succession patterns and respiratory health in children. American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine. 2014;190(11):1283-92.
28. Antoni S, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Znaor A, Jemal A, Bray F. Bladder cancer incidence and mortality: a global overview and recent trends. European urology. 2017;71(1):96-108.
29. Adeloye D, Harhay MO, Ayepola OO, Dos Santos JP, David RA, Ogunlana OO, et al. Estimate of the incidence of bladder cancer in Africa: A systematic review and Bayesian meta‐analysis. International Journal of Urology. 2019;26(1):102-12.
30. Hashtarkhani S, Akbari M, Jarahi L, Etminani K. Epidemiological characteristics and trend of incidence of human brucellosis in Razavi Khorasan province. Medical journal of Mashhad university of medical sciences. 2015;58(9):531-8.
31. Zhang J, Yin F, Zhang T, Yang C, Zhang X, Feng Z, et al. Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004–2010. BMJ open. 2014;4(4):e004470.
32. Yumuk Z, O’Callaghan D. Brucellosis in Turkey—an overview. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2012;16(4):e228-e35.
33. Al Dahouk S, Neubauer H, Hensel A, Schöneberg I, Nöckler K, Alpers K, et al. Changing epidemiology of human brucellosis, Germany, 1962–2005. Emerging infectious diseases. 2007;13(12):1895.
34. Seleem MN, Boyle SM, Sriranganathan N. Brucellosis: a re-emerging zoonosis. Veterinary microbiology. 2010;140(3-4):392-8.
35. Boschiroli M-L, Foulongne V, O'Callaghan D. Brucellosis: a worldwide zoonosis. Current opinion in microbiology. 2001;4(1):58-64.
36. Jelastopulu E, Bikas C, Petropoulos C, Leotsinidis M. Incidence of human brucellosis in a rural area in Western Greece after the implementation of a vaccination programme against animal brucellosis. BMC Public health. 2008;8(1):241.
37. Skalsky K, Yahav D, Bishara J, Pitlik S, Leibovici L, Paul M. Treatment of human brucellosis: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Bmj. 2008;336(7646):701-4.
38. Mirnejad R, Jazi FM, Mostafaei S, Sedighi M. Epidemiology of brucellosis in Iran: A comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis study. Microbial pathogenesis. 2017;109:239-47.
39. Khazaei S, Shojaeian M, Zamani R, Mansori K, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Rezaeian-Langroodi R, et al. Epidemiology and risk factors of childhood brucellosis in West of Iran. International journal of pediatrics. 2016;4(7):2099-104.
40. Zeinali M SM JS. National guideline for Brucellosis control. Tehran: J Fac Vet Med Univ Tehran. 2009;6(2):7-10[In Persian.].
41. Kassiri H, Amani H, Lotfi M. Epidemiological, laboratory, diagnostic and public health aspects of human brucellosis in western Iran. Asian Pacific journal of tropical biomedicine. 2013;3(8):589-94.