Abstract
Objectives. This study aims to assess the trend in initiation and
cessation of smoking across successive birth cohorts, according
to gender and education, in order to provide useful suggestion
for tobacco control policy.
Study design. The study is based on data from the ?Health
conditions and resort to sanitary services? survey carried out
in Italy from October 2004 to September 2005 by the National
Institute of Statistics. Through a multisampling procedure
a sample representative of the entire national territory was
selected.
Methods. In order to calculate trends in smoking initiation and
cessation, data were stratified for birth cohorts, gender and edu-
cation level, and analyzed through the life table method.
Results. The cumulative probability of smoking initiation, across
subsequent generations, shows a downward trend followed by
a plateau. This result highlights that there is not a shred of
evidence to support the hypothesis of an anticipation in smok-
ing initiation. The cumulative probability of quitting, across
subsequent generations, follows an upward trend, highlighting
the growing tendency of smokers to become an ?early quitter?,
who give up within 30 years of age.
Conclusion. Results suggest that the Italian antismoking
approach, for the most part targeted at preventing the initiation
of smoking emphasising the negative consequences, has an effect
on the early smoking cessation. Health policies should reinforce
the existing trend of ?early quitting? through specific actions. In
addition our results show that men with low education exhibit
the higher probability of smoking initiation and the lower prob-
ability of early quitting, and therefore should be targeted with
special attention.
